Retiring in 1929: the worst year to start the 4% rule
Retiring in 1929 with $1M and a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal, the money ran out in year 25 (1953). Its worst year was 1931, when the S&P 500 lost 43.1% including dividends. Inflation had pushed the yearly withdrawal from $40K to $62K by then. 1929 is the year of the Great Crash, when stocks peaked in September, crashed in October, and went on to lose more than 80% of their value by mid-1932.
Portfolio Value: Started in 1929
100% S&P 500
75/25 stocks/bonds (Trinity study mix)
Major market event
Starting: $1,000,000
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Withdrawal: 4.0%