Retiring in 1966: a 4% withdrawal ran out of money in year 26
Retiring in 1966 with $1M and a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal, the money ran out in year 26 (1991). Its worst year was 1974, when the S&P 500 lost 20.7% including dividends. Inflation had pushed the yearly withdrawal from $40K to $169K by then. 1966 began a 16-year stretch in which stocks went nowhere while inflation climbed into double digits, which is why it is the classic stress test for the 4% rule.
Portfolio Value: Started in 1966
100% S&P 500
75/25 stocks/bonds (Trinity study mix)
Major market event
Starting: $1,000,000
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Withdrawal: 4.0%