Retiring in 1973: a 4% withdrawal ran out of money in year 37
Retiring in 1973 with $1M and a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal, the money ran out in year 37 (2009). Its worst year was 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 35.2% including dividends. Inflation had pushed the yearly withdrawal from $40K to $198K by then. The 1973 oil embargo and the 1973-74 bear market cut the S&P 500 nearly in half, while inflation pushed withdrawals up fast.
Portfolio Value: Started in 1973
100% S&P 500
50/50 stocks/bonds (Trinity study mix)
Major market event
Starting: $1,000,000
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Withdrawal: 4.0%